After a 97-loss season, the Nationals’ future looks bleak. Juan Soto’s bat probably will continue to light the baseball world on fire but there aren’t many near-certainties for the Nationals to count on beyond him. They are relying on too many starting pitchers to bounce back from injury-plagued or ineffective seasons and expecting too many inexperienced players to spend their 2022 seasons finding footing in the major leagues.
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That’s a tough position for any organization, but it is particularly difficult for one not far removed from a championship.
It’s too early in the offseason to get down about the Nationals’ 2022 chances, though. So let’s spend some time looking at what’s coming down the pike. Here is a look at five prospects who could figure into the Nationals’ plans as soon as 2022 and three more who might not be far from climbing up the depth chart.
RHP Cade Cavalli
Age: 23
Size: 6-foot-4, 230 pounds
Signed/drafted: 2020 (Nationals, first round)
2021 stats: 3.36 ERA, 123 1/3 IP, 175 K, 60 BB, .213 opp. avg., 15 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR
Level: Triple A (Rochester, N.Y.)
The Nationals bet a little more than $3 million on Cavalli’s potential to become a front-line starter when they drafted him in the first round out of Oklahoma in 2020. It was a high price for the big right-hander because he threw barely 100 innings in his collegiate career. In addition to having his action limited by the pandemic in his final season, a stress reaction kept him off the mound for three weeks as a sophomore and he spent his freshman year as a two-way player. Yet the Nationals were sold on his hard fastball, above-average secondary offerings and smooth delivery. They saw an ace-type pitcher in Cavalli.
The youngster pitched like one for much of his first full season in the minor leagues. He torched the High-A and Double-A levels, striking out nearly 38 percent of batters and giving up a mere .182 batting average in his first 98 2/3 innings. But Cavalli’s command faltered as the summer went on. He produced a 14.4 percent walk rate in Double A. The rate dropped a bit to 10.7 percent in Triple A. But his strikeout rate also dropped. He went from striking out nearly 33 percent of batters in Double A to retiring almost 20 percent of opponents on strikes at the next level. Opponents also hit .317 against Cavalli in Triple A, where he posted a 7.30 ERA.
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Cavalli was working on slowing down his delivery, which was causing him to miss spots to his glove side, when he was promoted to Triple A. He will need to clean up his mechanics before he jumps to the major leagues. Given how open the Nationals rotation appears right now, it may not be too long before Cavalli is with the Nationals.
OF Donovan Casey
Age: 25
Size: 6-2, 190
Signed/drafted: 2017 (Dodgers, 20th round)
2021 stats: .269/.329/.430, 123 G, 168 K, 36 BB, 26 2B, 2 3B, 16 HR
Level: Triple A (Rochester, N.Y.)
Casey was one of the four prospects the Nationals acquired from the Dodgers in the July trade of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. He arrived heralded for his defensive acumen, strong throwing arm and athleticism. He flaunted those skills across his 50 games in the Nationals system, making two assists in his 108 innings in center field for Double-A Harrisburg and two assists in 174 innings manning both corners for Triple-A Rochester.
Casey’s bat left a strong impression, too. He showed an improved ability to hit the ball to the opposite field. However, he struggled after his promotion to Triple A, which occurred within weeks of his arrival with Harrisburg. His fly ball rate jumped about 22 percentage points to nearly 49 percent after his promotion to Triple A and his batting average plummeted. He finished 9-for-88 with 39 strikeouts to only five walks.
Strikeouts have always been an issue for Casey. But he has complemented that weakness with pop in his bat. He hit 20 homers for the Dodgers’ High-A affiliate in 2019 and 11 in 73 games in Double A before being traded to the Nationals.
Casey, who must be added to the 40-man roster by the November deadline if the Nationals don’t want to risk losing him in this year’s Rule 5 draft, has some extra playing time to sharpen his skills at the plate this fall. He’s on the roster of the Surprise Saguaros for the Arizona Fall League’s six-week season along with six other Nationals prospects (not Cavalli, who pitched a lot in 2021). A strong performance could solidify Casey as a depth player for the Nationals next season.
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RHP Cole Henry
Age: 22
Size: 6-4, 215
Signed/drafted: 2020 (Nationals, second round)
2021 stats: 2.30 ERA, 47 IP, 70 K, 12 BB, .171 opp. avg., 7 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR
Level: High A (Wilmington, Del.)
Henry is one of three starting pitchers in the system expected to pitch meaningful games in Washington for a long time. The Nationals drafted him as an age-eligible sophomore out of LSU in 2020 and offered him an over-slot bonus of $2 million. He hasn’t profiled as a flamethrower yet, but he has a solid three-pitch arsenal (four-seam fastball, curveball and changeup) that features a mid-90s heater.
Henry is currently playing in the AFL, where he can log valuable innings after being limited to only 11 games by elbow inflammation this season. The injury put a damper on an otherwise promising professional debut. Henry boasted a nearly 39 percent strikeout rate in High A. He also did a good job of suppressing line drives while producing more ground balls than fly balls. Opponents hit him at a .156 clip in his nine Wilmington starts.
Henry could put himself on a faster track to the major leagues if he stays healthy. But he has a few stops to make in the minors before that.
RHP Todd Peterson
Age: 23
Size: 6-5, 230
Signed/drafted: 2019 (Nationals, seventh round)
2021 stats: 3.82 ERA, 35 1/3 IP, 36 K, 13 BB, .226 opp. avg., 6 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR
Level: High A (Wilmington, Del.)
The Nationals’ system is pretty top-heavy. Evaluators don’t seem to think there is a lot of “high level” talent beyond the likes of Cavalli and recently drafted position players. But there are players on promising trajectories anyway. Peterson, drafted out of LSU in 2019, is one of them.
Before spending most the season’s first two months on the injured list, Peterson had a strong showing during the Nationals’ spring training schedule. He gave up one run on two hits in five innings spread across seven appearances. He issued four walks and only struck out one batter. His 94-95 mph fastball and high-80s slider proved useful weapons.
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Peterson appeared in 15 games for Wilmington after rejoining the team in July. He made several multi-inning appearances, including some starts, but his long-term role is in the bullpen. Peterson showed plenty of swing-and-miss stuff, striking out 24 percent of batters in High A. He needs to improve upon the 9 percent walk rate he posted, though. He will have time to do that in the Arizona Fall League.
It may not be long before the Nationals can figure Peterson into their major-league bullpen. Peterson very well could shoot up the minor-league ladder next season in the style of fellow relief prospect Gabe Klobosits, who dominated in 15 Double-A games and nine Triple-A games to start last season before he received a chance to pitch for the Nationals in August.
RHP Jackson Rutledge
Age: 22
Size: 6-8, 245
Signed/drafted: 2019 (Nationals, first round)
2021 stats: 7.68 ERA, 36 1/3 IP, 41 K, 20 BB, .276 opp. avg., 5 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR
Level: Low A (Fredericksburg, Va.)
Injuries and ineffectiveness hurt Rutledge’s stock last season. But he remains a pivotal cornerstone of the Nationals’ future rotation as much because of his stature as because of his pure stuff. He throws a 95-97 mph four-seam fastball with good command. His changeup and breaking pitches also show potential.
One reason Rutledge might not burnish as quick a path to the major leagues as Cavalli is his lack of playing time. He made 13 starts this season and rarely pitched beyond the third inning. Reworked mechanics could help Rutledge avoid the shoulder problems that plagued him. He will continue testing them in the fall league.
Keep an eye on these guys
INF Jackson Cluff
Age: 24
Size: 6-0, 185
Signed/drafted: 2019 (Nationals, sixth round)
2021 stats: .214/.306/.289, 45 G, 47 K, 12 BB, 6 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR
ETA: 2023
Level: Double A (Harrisburg, Pa.)
Cluff barely played in 2021, but limited playing time hasn’t stopped the strong defensive infielder from progressing in the past. He batted .325/.458/.515 as a senior at BYU after being away from the program for two years on a mission trip and put himself on the Nationals’ radar. But there is a lot of work for Cluff to do in the AFL this year. He will need to find a way to cut down some strikeouts and tap into some gap power. If he can improve his ability to reach base, he might be able to carve a path to the major leagues as a speedster. He was 7-for-9 in stolen base attempts this year.
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C Drew Millas
Age: 23
Size: 6-2, 205
Signed/drafted: 2019 (Athletics, seventh round)
2021 stats: .264/.372/.348, 86 G, 53 K, 54 BB, 16 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR
ETA: 2023
Level: High A (Wilmington, Del.)
Millas is a strong defensive catcher acquired from the Athletics at the trade deadline. He ended his first minor-league season with a 36 percent caught stealing percentage. His bat also showed promise. He drove in 20 runs and batted .284 in his 27 games in the Nationals’ system. Millas is a switch-hitter who is stronger from his left side; he hit his three homers left-handed. He will work on his craft in the AFL this year.
Age: 21
Size: 5-11, 190
Signed/drafted: 2016 (Nationals, international free agent)
2021 stats: .208/.260/.389, 77 G, 83 K, 18 BB, 11 2B, 0 3B, 14 HR
ETA: 2023
Level: High A (Wilmington, Del.)
Between Millas and Pineda, the Nationals’ future behind the plate appears to be in solid defensive shape. Pineda cut down 27 of 67 of would-be base stealers. He also was charged nine passed balls in 479 innings, an improvement from the 26 passed balls he was charged in 709 1/3 innings in 2019. Like Millas, he will sharpen his skills in the AFL over the next six weeks. Pineda will need to be added to the 40-man roster if the Nationals don’t want to risk losing him in this winter’s Rule 5 draft. However, they left Pineda unprotected last year and didn’t lose him then.
(Photo of Cade Cavalli: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)
